| Professor JNR Jeffers | |
| D.Sc. (Lancaster), CStat, CIBiol, FIBiol, CIFor | |
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Special Purpose Methods
Perhaps not surprisingly, there already exist a number of special purpose methods and techniques which combine many of the ideas reviewed in the previous pages of this Series. The following list is by no means exhaustive, but gives a fair indication of the kinds of facilities that are now available for particular kinds of information management. 1. Conflict analysis and resolution The function of conflict analysis is to enable a participant to make better decisions in conflict situations. These improved decisions are achieved in two stages. First, the available information about the conflict is modelled in such a way that it can be viewed holistically. Second, possible resolutions to the conflict are derived from the model and the available information. The crucial property of any suggested resolution is that it should be stable for all the participants of the conflict, so that this second step may be characterised as stability analysis. Metagame theory, an extension of classical game theory provides the basis for a computer program that models and resolves conflicts of all kinds, including those involving hypergames or strategic surprise. Metagame theory has more recently been extended to incorporate graph theory, and the resulting graph model of conflicts systematically accounts for the feasible changes of state that can take place in the life of a conflict. The graph model can properly describe and distinguish reversible and irreversible moves, and it forms a solid framework upon which solution concepts for describing human behaviour can be defined, assessed and compared. It also enables the analyst to describe and resolve conflicts with very large numbers of participants and options. 2. CyberQuest - controlled search for solutions to problems CyberQuest (CQ) is a unique system intended to help the user, either individually or with others, to solve problems and/or take advantage of opportunities for innovation. It is a hypermedia hardware and software system employed in a guided six-step quest for solutions. It can be used in any situation requiring innovative approaches to problems, in design, in strategic planning, in opportunity enhancement, in the search for innovation, or more generally simply to achieve a given aim. The controlled six-step process includes problem description and analysis, word selection, generation of ideas, idea screening, idea packaging, and reporting. In the final stage, CQ can produce a wide variety of reports highlighting the results at each step of the process, and collates these reports in a desktop publishing system. 3. Multi-objective decision support Multi-criteria decision making is a major and rapidly growing field of research, and DEFINITE (Decisions on a FINITE set of alternatives) is a computer-based support package available to help in finding optimum solutions. The system supports the whole decision process, including structuring the problem and generating alternatives, comparing alternatives, ranking or valuing alternatives, support interpretation of results, and presentation of results in a suitable form for reporting. An important feature of the system is evaluation of the sensitivity of the results to uncertainties in scores, weights and prices, together with the sensitivity of the ranking to the evaluation method used. Because the system contains no standard data, but applies to a general class of problems, it is essentially an expert system 'shell'. 4. ModelMaker Simulation models usually comprise a series of mathematical equations that describe various processes, which, when coupled together should behave like the 'real' system being modelled. The complexity of such models requires numerical rather than analytical solutions, making them ideal for computer applications. The development of computer simulation models has four principal stages: (a) understanding the system to be modelled, (b) developing the mathematical relationships, (c) converting these relationships into a computer program, (d) interpreting and analysing the output. The primary objective of ModelMaker is to provide a software environment which enables the user to type in the equations and run the model with no need for actual programming. Interactive comparison of inputs and results then enables the model to be gradually refined and improved. 5. Accelerated group study Using a combination of the mind mapping and thinking techniques reviewed earlier in this Series, a group of between three and six individuals can greatly enhance the acquisition and understanding of new information over a concentrated period of one to three days. Each individual concentrates on one aspect of the knowledge relevant to the topic or topics of interest, but, in addition to reviewing their chosen field and making notes of the key concepts, presents a comprehensive, structured and ordered summary to the other members of the group. Participants in such a study group develop a much more coherent understanding of complex ideas, effectively learning from three to six topics simultaneously. Ideally, such group study takes place in specially selected location, free from everyday interruptions and following a carefully structured time-table that makes proper allowance for meals, relaxation, study, and presentations. |
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